Pengaruh Suku Bunga, Nilai Tukar, dan Impor terhadap Neraca Perdagangan Indonesia dengan Risiko Geopolitik sebagai Moderator

Virginnia Arctic Alkhesa; Nadya Eka Putri; Khristina Yunita

doi:10.55606/jumia.v4i4.4615

Authors

Virginnia Arctic Alkhesa Universitas Tanjungpura
Nadya Eka Putri Universitas Tanjungpura
Khristina Yunita Universitas Tanjungpura

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.55606/jumia.v4i4.4615

Keywords:

ARDL, BI Rate, Exchange Rate, Global Geopolitical Risks, Import Value

Abstract

This study aims toi analyzei thei impact oif thei BI ratei, eixchangei rateis, and impoirts oin Indoineisia’s eicoinoimic vulneirability toi gloibal geioipoilitical risks as a moideirating variablei froim 2020 toi 2025. This study useis mointhly data froim Bank Indoineisia, thei Ceintral Statistics Ageincy, and thei Geioipoilitical Risk Indeix (GPR). Thei analysis meithoid useid is thei Autoireigreissivei Distributeid Lag (ARDL) moideil with thei assistancei oif EiVieiws 14 soiftwarei. Thei findings indicatei that theirei is a significant shoirt-teirm impact oin Indoineisia’s tradei balancei froim impoirt valueis. In thei loing teirm, impoirts havei a significant neigativei impact, whilei thei inteiractioin beitweiein impoirts and gloibal geioipoilitical risks has a significant poisitivei impact oin Indoineisia’s tradei balancei. Hoiweiveir, thei BI Ratei, eixchangei ratei, and oitheir inteiractioin variableis doi noit shoiw a significant impact. Thei reisults oif thei boiund teist indicatei a coiinteigratioin reilatioinship amoing thei variableis in thei reiseiarch moideil. Coinseiqueintly, an increiasei in gloibal geioipoilitical risk amplifieis thei impact oif impoirts oin Indoineisia’s tradei balancei in thei loing teirm.

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